Macquarie Issues Contrarian Warning on Gold Despite Wall Street Optimism
Gold futures have slumped nearly 9% since late October, prompting Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS to forecast a rebound by 2026. Macquarie strikes a dissonant chord, predicting further declines as global growth recovers and central banks NEAR the end of easing cycles.
"Real interest rates remain elevated, and détente in US-China tensions suggests the metal's near-term peak is behind us," said Ric Deverell, Macquarie's chief economist. The firm anticipates a gradual descent, though prices may hold above $2,000/oz during Trump's presidency absent geopolitical shocks.
Notably, this bearish outlook persists despite expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December—a move historically supportive of gold. The divergence underscores deepening institutional divides on inflation hedges as cryptocurrency adoption accelerates.
